Orion Quin
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The Battle You Can’t Win

Most mythologies promise their gods a victory. This one does not, which is the strangest and most interesting thing about it.


Meaning · Defeat  ·  ~7 min read

Brother will fight brother and be his slayer. An axe age, a sword age, shields are riven.Völuspá 45, trans. Carolyne Larrington

§ 01A Myth That Ends Badly

And two corrections about it

The gods know how the story ends. At Ragnarök they will go out against a foe they cannot beat, and they will fall, and they go out anyway.

Two things before I take anything from it.

The first: our fullest account comes from Snorri Sturluson, a Christian writing in thirteenth-century Iceland, and scholars have long argued that his version may be shaped by Christian apocalyptic material. How much of the doomed-gods picture is pre-Christian and how much is Snorri organizing fragments is genuinely unsettled.

The second matters more for what people do with this myth. The Völuspá does not end at the destruction. A new world rises, the surviving gods return, and there is a passage about fields growing unsown. The heroic-pessimist reading — doom, and nothing after — is a selection from the text, and it is the selection most modern users make, mine included until I read further.

So what I am working with is a narrower thing than the myth: the image of going out fully into something you will not win.

§ 02Effort That Does Not Depend on the Outcome

Which is harder than it sounds

The practical question is whether a person can give everything to something they expect to lose. Most people discover they cannot, in the moment, and that discovering it is unpleasant.

What happens instead is subtler than quitting. The prospect of losing arrives, and effort quietly reduces, and the reduction gets justified afterward by the loss — which makes the whole thing unfalsifiable and comfortable. Nobody experiences this as giving up.

The motivational research offers a partial account: effort anchored to the doing rather than to the outcome is more robust when the outcome looks bad.4 That is a reasonable finding and a modest one, largely from self-determination work, largely self-report.

There is also a literature on disengaging from unreachable goals, which finds that letting go of what cannot be attained is associated with better outcomes than persisting.7 I find that more interesting than the first, because it is the direct counter-argument to this essay, and it is not obviously wrong.

What usually happens
  • The prospect of losing arrives before the thing is over
  • Effort reduces quietly, without a decision being made
  • The result then explains it afterward, which closes the loop
  • Nobody experiences this as giving up
The other option
  • The question changes from can I win to what can I give
  • Effort is anchored to something you control
  • The result does not settle whether it was worth doing
  • And you find out what you actually had

The question you ask determines what is available to you.

§ 03When This Is Terrible Advice

The counter-argument, taken seriously

A philosophy that admires magnificent doomed effort has an obvious problem: most doomed efforts should be abandoned.

The goal-disengagement research points the other way from this essay, and it is decent research. People who can let go of unattainable goals do better on a range of measures than people who persist. Sunk cost, escalation of commitment, and the inability to quit a bad project are among the best-documented failures in decision-making. Against all that, “go out magnificently” is advice with a body count.

The distinction I would draw is between a contest and a project. A contest has a fixed end — the race finishes, the match ends, the thing is over by Thursday — and inside it, reducing effort because you expect to lose costs you information about yourself and buys nothing. A project has no natural end, and persisting in one that cannot work is the error the research describes.

The myth is about a battle, which is a contest. Applying it to your career, your business, or a relationship is applying it to a project, and there the disengagement literature is the better guide.

Note — contests and projects

Most doomed efforts should be abandoned.

The goal-disengagement research points the opposite way from this essay and is decent research. The distinction that survives it: inside a contest with a fixed end, reducing effort because you expect to lose buys nothing. Applied to an open-ended project, this is the error that literature describes.

§ 04Doing It

Change the question

The whole move is replacing a question you cannot answer with one you can.

01
Check first whether this is a contest fixed end, or open-ended?
If it is open-ended and cannot work, the honest move is to stop. This essay is about the other case.
02
Replace the question from can I win to what can I give
“Can I win” is frequently not yours to answer, and a no quietly licenses holding back.
03
Decide before you know not in the middle
The reduction happens the moment losing looks likely. The decision has to be made earlier than that.
04
Spend it nothing held back
The specific value of a lost contest fully contested is that you learn what you have. Held back, you learn nothing.
05
Keep your own measure the scoreboard answers a different question
What you gave and what the result was are two facts. Only one of them is about you.

§ 05Sources

These essays draw on Old Norse and Old English literature — the Poetic Edda, Snorri Sturluson’s Prose Edda, the Icelandic sagas, and Beowulf — all of which were written down in Christian societies long after the pagan world they describe. Eddic and saga passages follow the translations named below; where a term or picture is contested, the essay says so rather than the list. Modern research is cited by author and publication.

  1. The Völuspá (“The Prophecy of the Seeress”) — from the Poetic Edda. Trans. Crawford; Larrington. The telling of Ragnarök, the doom the gods march out to meet.
  2. Snorri Sturluson — The Prose Edda, Gylfaginning. Trans. Jesse Byock. The fullest account of the gods' last battle.
  3. Tolkien, J. R. R. — “The Monsters and the Critics” (1936). On the northern “theory of courage” — the will to fight on against certain defeat.
  4. Ryan, R. M. & Deci, E. L. — intrinsic and process motivation, Contemporary Educational Psychology (2000). Effort anchored to the doing, durable when outcome fails.
  5. Klinger, E. — the psychology of disengagement from unreachable goals, in Coping with Chronic Stress (1996). The automatic pull to withdraw — and its resisting.
  6. Steger, M. et al. — meaning independent of outcome, Journal of Positive Psychology (2008). Meaning from the quality of engagement, not the favorability of result.
  7. Wrosch, C., Scheier, M. F., Miller, G. E., Schulz, R. & Carver, C. S. — “Adaptive self-regulation of unattainable goals,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 29(12) (2003). The goal-disengagement research this essay treats as its own counter-argument.
  8. Larrington, C. (trans.) — The Poetic Edda (Oxford World’s Classics, rev. 2014). The Völuspá, including the world that rises after the destruction.
§   T H E   T A K E A W A Y

Inside a contest you expect to lose, effort tends to reduce quietly and get justified by the result afterward — which is comfortable, unfalsifiable, and costs you the only thing a lost contest can give you.

But most doomed efforts should be abandoned, and the research says so. The myth is about a battle. Applied to an open-ended project it is the escalation error with better scenery.

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